Tornados in my city, Cyclon updates and Storm alerts by the Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1858

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Mesoscale Discussion 1858
MD 1858 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1858
   NWS Tornados in my city, Cyclon updates and Storm alerts by the Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

   Areas affected...areas of northern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031902Z - 032130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms moving southeast across northern
   Arizona may produce an isolated risk of severe hail.

   DISCUSSION...Daytime heating has allowed destabilization to occur
   ahead of a cluster of thunderstorms advancing southeast across
   Mohave and Coconino counties in northern Arizona over the last
   couple of hours. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg has been observed
   across much of the area along and south of I-40 into southern Mohave
   and Yavapai counties. Forecast soundings from the latest NAM/RAP
   show further destabilization is possible through the afternoon, as
   much of this area is partly cloudy. Forecast soundings also show
   cool temperatures aloft in association with an upper level low
   across the western US, which is aiding in weak to locally moderate
   instability. Latest observations from VWP at KFSX indicate marginal
   deep layer shear around 20-25 kts. A few of these cells could become
   severe producing hail up to 1" over the next 1-3 hours. This risk
   should remain fairly isolated due to the lack of stronger shear, and
   marginal storm organization. This will likely preclude the need for
   a watch.

   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 10/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF...

   LAT...LON   34601219 34551255 34561293 34611325 34681371 34791399
               34941419 35171416 35491415 35491387 35571330 35591302
               35421208 35211184 35001184 34741197 34601219 


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